Bioshock Infinite - Modern Day Speedrunning!?

2015-06-11 01:56:25 am

MATHEMATICS

Quote from Stoic_Squirrel:

I have this theory that the gear are subject to weighted % chance. After running the game so much and testing so often, I feel like some gear appear more often than others. I wish I would have taken numbers to back this up, as I've spent more time than I'm happy to admit grinding that dumb gear to figure out it's secrets, and it really seems some gear are more common. For instance, some gears I feel I see more often are Vampire's Embrace (melee kills=health) and Fit as a Fiddle (revive=full health). These two gear have pretty straight forward effects and seem to be more common. A gear like HrH (delicious, 50% speed boost with shield break) does not seem nearly intuitive to a casual player. At first glance it seems to have a pretty weak effect, but veteran high difficulty casual players will attest its useful for running and hiding when their shield breaks on the Hard and 1999 modes, respectively. This effect won't be useful to a first time player on lower difficulty, and I feel that as a result it is less likely to appear. I honestly hope this isn't true, but again, I've ground out this gear so often in non-run situations, that I feel at this point the gear are weighted %. True, you can still get a godlike first try HrH, but the odds are so much lower then we think. Either that or the Devs had a thing for Twilight Kappa

Gah this is what I said like 30 pages ago! From just the data evo collected (page 13), there's a less than 0.1% chance of the gears being chosen uniformly at random at that specific spot. So *if* there is nothing else at work here (like the seed for the RNG being set upon each reload à la Bioshock 1) the probabilities for different gears are almost certainly different.

It shouldn't be hard to keep track of gear drops in a spreadsheet. If people are livestreaming someone in chat can do it (has to be exactly one person though). If we have some data, we can do the statistics and find some patterns. I have set up a Gdoc here with all gears listed: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H707XWoxqI4jrN72pSpW3bBN2DVut-vtbY6wb650Bvw/edit?usp=sharing For each run/session of testing gears, simply duplicate the template, fill in the location and statistics you collected.

[quote="Stoic_Squirrel"]I have this theory that the gear are subject to weighted % chance.  After running the game so much and testing so often, I feel like some gear appear more often than others.  I wish I would have taken numbers to back this up, as I've spent more time than I'm happy to admit grinding that dumb gear to figure out it's secrets, and it really seems some gear are more common.  For instance, some gears I feel I see more often are Vampire's Embrace (melee kills=health) and Fit as a Fiddle (revive=full health).  These two gear have pretty straight forward effects and seem to be more common.  A gear like HrH (delicious, 50% speed boost with shield break) does not seem nearly intuitive to a casual player.  At first glance it seems to have a  pretty weak effect, but veteran high difficulty casual players will attest its useful for running and hiding when their shield breaks on the Hard and 1999 modes, respectively.  This effect won't be useful to a first time player on lower difficulty, and I feel that as a result it is less likely to appear.  I honestly hope this isn't true, but again, I've ground out this gear so often in non-run situations, that I feel at this point the gear are weighted %.  True, you can still get a godlike first try HrH, but the odds are so much lower then we think. Either that or the Devs had a thing for Twilight Kappa [/quote]
Gah this is what I said like 30 pages ago! From just the data evo collected (page 13), there's a less than 0.1% chance of the gears being chosen uniformly at random at that specific spot. So *if* there is nothing else at work here (like the seed for the RNG being set upon each reload à la Bioshock 1) the probabilities for different gears are almost certainly different.

It shouldn't be hard to keep track of gear drops in a spreadsheet. If people are livestreaming someone in chat can do it (has to be exactly one person though). If we have some data, we can do the statistics and find some patterns. I have set up a Gdoc here with all gears listed: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H707XWoxqI4jrN72pSpW3bBN2DVut-vtbY6wb650Bvw/edit?usp=sharing For each run/session of testing gears, simply duplicate the template, fill in the location and statistics you collected.

hummeldon

2015-06-11 06:40:13 am

Ok, I'll dupe the doc and start filling in when I do runs.

Dvohoritch

2015-06-11 11:34:50 am

I think I'll note down what gears I roll as well.

Isn't it kind of pointless to add the DLC gears as well because (unless I'm wrong) we don't use the DLC and IIRC any BaS runs don't have a HRH grind?

161803398874989

2015-06-13 09:05:39 am

MATHEMATICS

About the DLC gear: I'm unsure whether or not it gets added to the gear pool. I mean, Season Pass and Collector's Edition add gear to the main game pool, so they could do it for the Burial at Sea gear. Has anyone obtained any Burial at Sea gear in the main game?

I've done some runs of both Arcade gears, totalling 266 gears. These are the ones I haven't gotten yet:

- Rising Bloodlust: guaranteed in Comstock House
- Spare the Rod: guaranteed somewhere in the Factory Chapter
- Pyromaniac
- Angry Stompers
- Health for Salts: guaranteed in Comstock House
- Spectral Sidekick: guaranteed in Bank of the Prophet

However, I *did* get Drop Cloth (twice, even) which is guaranteed in the Bull Yard in Shantytown. At first I thought it might be that you have to pass through a tear to obtain the other gears, but you've already passed through a tear before you can get to Shanytown, so that hypothesis is out the window. Any thoughts as to why some guaranteed gear doesn't seem to want to show up? I'm currently thinking the chance for Pyromaniac and Angry Stompers simply have a very low chance of showing up (though Dvohoritch didn't get 'em either): they're both quite powerful. Also from my data their expected variance is something like 6%.

I got HRH 6 times out of 266, so that's put the estimated chance for HRH at 2.25 percent. Combined with Dvohoritch' stats (0 HRH out of 140 pickups), however, the chance drops to 1.5 percent. However, Dvohoritch got his gears from different places as well, so it might be that you simply can't get HRH at different spots.

Just looking at a gear does not remove it from the pool: I've gotten double gears (for example two Nitro Vests). I'll start picking it up next time I do some testing to see if picking up a gear does remove it from the pool. I got double gears 3 times out of 133 reloads, so not getting double gear once out of ~100 reloads should be reasonable evidence.

As far as the same gears popping up repeatedly, there are definitely some higher chance gears. The in-a-row part might be confirmation bias since it didn't really happen much for me. On the other hand my loading times are quite long (yay, console), so that might be a confounding factor.

Finally, I was not able to rule out differing probabilities between sessions, but with the current number of tests you're looking at relatively large variances so the test is probably just not sufficiently powerful. I also did it from the same save.

TL;DR Gears guaranteed later in the game might be removed from the gear pool, except for Drop Cloth. Haven't experienced getting a single gear an absurd number of times in a row, but I have slow loading times so that might be a confounding factor. There's likely not enough data to conclude anything meaningful about differing probabilities between different sessions (quitting and reloading).

About the DLC gear: I'm unsure whether or not it gets added to the gear pool. I mean, Season Pass and Collector's Edition add gear to the main game pool, so they could do it for the Burial at Sea gear. Has anyone obtained any Burial at Sea gear in the main game?

I've done some runs of both Arcade gears, totalling 266 gears. These are the ones I haven't gotten yet:

- Rising Bloodlust: guaranteed in Comstock House
- Spare the Rod: guaranteed somewhere in the Factory Chapter
- Pyromaniac
- Angry Stompers
- Health for Salts: guaranteed in Comstock House
- Spectral Sidekick: guaranteed in Bank of the Prophet

However, I *did* get Drop Cloth (twice, even) which is guaranteed in the Bull Yard in Shantytown. At first I thought it might be that you have to pass through a tear to obtain the other gears, but you've already passed through a tear before you can get to Shanytown, so that hypothesis is out the window. Any thoughts as to why some guaranteed gear doesn't seem to want to show up? I'm currently thinking the chance for Pyromaniac and Angry Stompers simply have a very low chance of showing up (though Dvohoritch didn't get 'em either): they're both quite powerful. Also from my data their expected variance is something like 6%.

I got HRH [b]6 times out of 266[/b], so that's put the estimated chance for HRH at 2.25 percent. Combined with Dvohoritch' stats (0 HRH out of 140 pickups), however, the chance drops to 1.5 percent. However, Dvohoritch got his gears from different places as well, so it might be that you simply can't get HRH at different spots.

Just looking at a gear does not remove it from the pool: I've gotten double gears (for example two Nitro Vests). I'll start picking it up next time I do some testing to see if picking up a gear does remove it from the pool. I got double gears 3 times out of 133 reloads, so not getting double gear once out of ~100 reloads should be reasonable evidence.

As far as the same gears popping up repeatedly, there are definitely some higher chance gears. The in-a-row part might be confirmation bias since it didn't really happen much for me. On the other hand my loading times are quite long (yay, console), so that might be a confounding factor.

Finally, I was not able to rule out differing probabilities between sessions, but with the current number of tests you're looking at relatively large variances so the test is probably just not sufficiently powerful. I also did it from the same save.

[b]TL;DR[/b] Gears guaranteed later in the game might be removed from the gear pool, except for Drop Cloth. Haven't experienced getting a single gear an absurd number of times in a row, but I have slow loading times so that might be a confounding factor. There's likely not enough data to conclude anything meaningful about differing probabilities between different sessions (quitting and reloading).

Dvohoritch

2015-06-13 03:05:32 pm

I've not seen any of the DLC gears pop up in the main game, mostly because the Season Pass gears are all in the Blue Ribbon. I have all DLC disabled anyway just to be sure.

IIRC if a gear's been picked up it gets removed from the gear pool and will therefore not show up in later gear spawns. The only exception to this is if they're in the same area, e.g. the Arcade.

Also I did my grinding in the Arcade as usual.

I think there's 2 pools of gears with stuff like Vampire's Embrace in a common pool and stuff like HRH (:() In a rare pool.

Why some guaranteed gears spawn while others don't is beyond me. Would it be advantageous to grab the guaranteed Burning Halo after the Kool Krow Klan fight?

penta

2015-06-13 05:36:35 pm

That's a shame, but understandable. Everyone who ever ran this game wishes for some explanation for HRH when the truth is that there isn't any other than randomness.

I'd sugest that if this game ever get to a point of skipping many and many cutscenes, a division between HRH and no-HRH to be done just for the sake of the competition and mostly motivation.

161803398874989

2015-06-13 06:04:11 pm

MATHEMATICS

Quote from Dvohoritch:

Why some guaranteed gears spawn while others don't is beyond me. Would it be advantageous to grab the guaranteed Burning Halo after the Kool Krow Klan fight?

Burning Halo probably has less than a 1% chance of appearing, and that 1% chance would get distributed between all the other gears, so you end up with like a 0.01% increase in HRH chance at best. So, no.

hummeldon

Edit history:

hummeldon: 2015-06-14 01:13:53 am

2015-06-14 01:13:17 am

I hate it because I really enjoy the run and I love the effect that HRH has on the run aside from the RNG that comes with trying to get it. If HRH was a guarantee for every run I bet the WR could realistically be close to sub 1:50.

Dvohoritch

2015-06-15 05:46:43 am

Gear spawns don't stay the same on first load, nor does system time seem to affect it. Fuck.

Must be something that the game builds the seed from tho.

161803398874989

2015-06-15 06:00:45 am

MATHEMATICS

Ferret got Pyromaniac and Angry Stompers during a run, so the absence of those in my tests is due to low probability of appearing.

Seed is probably just the standard method which is to take the time in milliseconds. Which sucks because there's nothing you can do about that.

RealLink

2015-06-16 06:11:13 pm

I tried getting some info using cheat engine again and there is a function to overwrite the Random Number Generation, so I always ended up with the same gear each reload from checkpoint, but not when I restarted the game or even realoaded Battleship Bay from the main menu. Not sure that means anything, in the end its still random in a run so like Numbers said there is nothing we can do about it.

Got some OoB to show if anyone feels like trying some stuff. There is also the Anabelle conversation skip that I talked abou, but it's the same deal as Neither skip. Trial&Error for a small timesave.

Chadbrochill84

2015-06-16 06:32:12 pm

realink to do list:
glitch walk up elizabeths tower to the top from the bottom
hrh 100% reproduction rate
wrong warp from chair in lighthouse to end credits
bhopping
wrong warp from main menu to end credits
hrh always on glitch
wrong warp from game launch to end credits

countin on u buddy

DraQu

2015-06-21 11:02:50 am

Hey, I'm thinking about picking this game up and I was wondering if there's a specific version to use? I noticed that most of the runs done don't have the season pass stuff.

Stoic_Squirrel

2015-06-21 12:29:15 pm

Hey Draqu! We don't run any particular version as there aren't major differences between them to prefer one over the other. That being said, we choose not to run the Season Pass stuff as this gives you additional gear and gun upgrades that aren't in the base game...that would be a speed run pay to win, so to speak. If you already own it (like I do), just move the folder out of the directory it's in and it won't load. And welcome! :-)

Stoic_Squirrel

Edit history:

Stoic_Squirrel: 2015-06-25 08:21:55 pm

2015-06-25 08:07:37 pm

Double post for hype! Taking the elevators out of the Elevator simulator, one at a time.

http://www.twitch.tv/stoic__squirrel/c/6882671

More testing needs to be done, but it is pretty consistent and easy to pull off. Havn't done any testing w/o HrH since that would require a new save game.

Edit: Saves 2 minutes 20 seconds

RealLink

Edit history:

RealLink: 2015-06-25 08:31:16 pm

2015-06-25 08:10:22 pm

Great find there!
I just tried it, really easy to do, and I think we can even skip doing THPS Factory skip with this. Probably requires some more testing to find out where to jump, but it does seem very possible.

e: I'm not sure how to directly fall into the Finkton area, but most of the time I'm falling down into a void and then being reset into the elevator with the building unloaded. From there I can just drop down into Finktion and even get factory skip like that.

Stoic_Squirrel

Edit history:

Stoic_Squirrel: 2015-06-25 09:35:17 pm

Stoic_Squirrel: 2015-06-25 09:01:59 pm

2015-06-25 08:57:33 pm

Glad you were able to replicate it :-) Yea it seems like we can get Factory Skip pulled off even quicker on the back end of the elevator skip. When I first discovered you could start loading a new area by jumping and dying in the elevator I would consistently land back where I would begin the suicide...but when I started maneuvering during the death scene/white screen (i.e., looking down, moving dead Booker in mid air) it suddenly dropped me into Finkton and loaded the new area. Not sure how all the pieces fit yet, but it somehow loads the new area when you look at it.

E: Still haven't tried it completely w/o HrH in inventory, but a normal suicide (i.e., non HrH boost jump) seems to work, although you don't fall as far out into Finkton and tend to load into the building where the elevator runs. Also, it should be noted it is completely possible to fall into objects that get you permanently stuck forcing you to suicide to respawn.

hummeldon

2015-06-26 07:22:38 am

Oh my... Great find Stoic. That is a looooong elevator cutscene that can be eliminated. Sub 1:50 is definitely becoming more and more real. Why does this run have to have such a horrible RNG section? It is such a cool run!

heny

Edit history:

heny: 2015-06-26 10:36:39 am

2015-06-26 10:34:00 am

Hey there! So far I've only been lurking in this thread but the recent developments got me interested in running this game again and contributing as good as possible. Hats off to you, Stoic & RealLink, those new skips are amazing. Finally less annoying elevator rides, that's reason enough to celebrate.

I played around a bit with the Finkton Proper skip and came up with this method that allows you do bypass having to do the usual Factory skip:

It's pretty easy, you just have to land on that little roof below the elevator (just try for how long you need to hold forward while looking down) and then use the speed boost from landing to make a huge jump around the corner. You need to land on the outer edge of the building though, otherwise you'll just fall into the abyss.

161803398874989

2015-06-26 12:28:43 pm

MATHEMATICS

Man, this is great. Might it be possible to use HRH to suicide through the grate, skipping calling the elevator?

heny

Edit history:

heny: 2015-06-26 03:54:42 pm

heny: 2015-06-26 03:49:17 pm

2015-06-26 03:47:01 pm

Somehow that's not possible since the wall is solid before the elevator appears.

Anyway, I just got a new record with a time of 1:53:19 - http://www.twitch.tv/henyk/c/6886046 (Splits: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIc4EttWoAAAguW.png)

This run has very good HRH luck (only a couple of gear box checks) but lacks execution especially in late game. I'll work on that and hope to get another shot at a quick drop soon to improve it. We're actually close to sub 1:50 now which is very possible with those new skips. Smiley

Dvohoritch

Edit history:

Dvohoritch: 2015-06-26 04:28:01 pm

2015-06-26 04:27:37 pm

Speaking of skips and sub-1:50, wasn't there a way to get into the First Lady before the Factory fight was finished? Did anything come of that?

Also I think I need to stop goofing around and get a time in.

Chadbrochill84

2015-06-28 03:56:19 am

Quote from Dvohoritch:

Speaking of skips and sub-1:50, wasn't there a way to get into the First Lady before the Factory fight was finished? Did anything come of that?

Also I think I need to stop goofing around and get a time in.

Ya you can get onto it but I havnt been able to find a way to get into the control room yet. Although im pretty sure its useless since even noclipping in there doesnt allow you to skip the handyman fight

heny

2015-06-29 06:04:02 pm

Improved my time from a few days ago by about 1.5 minutes and got a 1:51:52.

Video: http://www.twitch.tv/henyk/c/6900353 - Splits: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CItGY1qWUAAH4H9.png

The run has three major flaws that prevent it from being sub 1:50: an accidental suicide in Downtown Emporia (screw this game's health system), an accidental suicide right before the Prophet's Cabin skip (screw this game's health system²) and a terrible final fight.

HRH was pretty fast with only one reset but neither skip took me a couple of tries unfortunately.

hummeldon

2015-06-30 11:33:43 am

Quote from heny:

(screw this game's health system)

"So, I have a little sliver of health left but I'm pretty sure that little sliver of health is more than 0 so I should be OK to break my shield here aaaaaaaaaand I'm dead."