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Is PJ
I beat my Rad Raygun PB tonight and finished a bunch of other really sloppy runs.  It basically all comes down to RNG.  I'm pretty consistent with actual movement and whatnot, just boss fights add time.  So yea, estimate should probably be fine still.  Every run was well under 10 min and it's a 15 min estimate.

The only issue is that I crashed the game 20-30 times tonight during attempts.
Quote from PJ:
The only issue is that I crashed the game 20-30 times tonight during attempts.

I don't see the issue, speedrunners crashing games is hype even if it's easy to do Wink
Doing 5 no reset runs a day, havent got over 27:45 in 4 days so things are looking good. PB'd twice yesterday and now have a 27:11
Got another MGR PB on stream a couple days ago, 1:22:45. Pretty good and got most major fights/skips, but was sloppy in some things. Definitely going to grind out some stuff.
Keeper of TASBot
I've set up my entire bot system from one end to the other on a different NES and a different game and I was able to Console Verify the A Boy and His Blob TAS.  I now feel very comfortable that I can get repeatable results, and I also have a good feel for how long it takes to go from start to ffinish.  I hear from micro500 that he got the components for his next generation N64 bot so that front also appears to be going well (no one wants to cart around a breadboard :).  I'm working on some surprises I plan to hype in the week before the marathon.  Things are looking good!
Nice! Blob hype!
New personal best for Fire Emblem: 1:30:01 (game time) and 1:33:45 (real-time). The estimate of 2:30 is still hilariously bad. Tongue
Not a walrus
Pretty consistently getting about an hour on Deus Ex with all the extra stuff I might end up doing for donation incentives. Best so far is about 55 minutes with the shortest ending but all other donation incentives.

Plus this happened last night: http://www.twitch.tv/uraniumanchor/c/3428609
My feelings on The Demon Rush
Molotov, I'll adjust the schedule once I know what bertin's average time is for Sacred Stones. This also might mean we can add a game to the schedule.
Edit history:
Vulajin: 2013-12-21 07:49:57 pm
I've done 20 no-reset Bastion runs over the past few days, and I've made a bunch of different major mistakes, including failing core duplication several times, building the wrong buildings, and going to the wrong level. This is good because I've gotten opportunities to practice backup strats, and they work pretty well. Even in the worst cases my time hasn't hit 19 minutes. (At the other end of the spectrum, I've gotten five sub-16 runs, including a new WR, so it's not all failure and doom.)
just( •_•)>⌐■-■ ..... (⌐■_■)wing it
did 2 runs of mmx3 got low 47's.  will have that to high 46's within a week.  WE IN THERE
Got another PB in MGR, 1:21:35. Going to work on boss fights tomorrow.
Keeper of TASBot
I've set up my entire bot system from one end to the other on a different NES and a different game and I was able to Console Verify the A Boy and His Blob TAS.  I now feel very comfortable that I can get repeatable results, and I also have a good feel for how long it takes to go from start to finish.

I present to you... ROBBerry Pi!

This gives the whole bot experience a much friendlier feel.  As noted in the link above I hope to clean things up a bit by using double-sided sticky tape and I still want to  make ROB's LED flash but I'd be just as happy with what I have now.
over the past week i've been getting somewhere in the low 58 to high 57 times in vtmb, so well within estimate

vod of my last run earlier today: http://www.twitch.tv/lurkchan/b/489437961?t=6m14s
Only Offense Will Survive
Got a 1:39:23 yesterday after I wasnt able to run for ten days. Got very unlucky and I ran risks very much. I expect a 1:38:xx for AGDQ.
Caution: This user contains Kana ^_^
dwangoAC: That is one damn cute bot *___*
Here's the final list of scenarios from Age of Empires 2 that can CONSISTENTLY be done in under 20 minutes:

Joan of Arc campaign:

(1) An Unlikely Messiah
(2) The Maid of Orleans
(5) The Siege of Paris

Saladin

(1) An Arabian Knight
(3) The Horns of Hattin
(4) The Siege of Jerusalem
(5) Jihad!

Genghis Khan

(1) Crucible
(2) A Life of Revenge

Frederick Barbarossa

(1) Holy Roman Emperor
(2) Henry the Lion
(3) Pope and Antipope
(4) The Lombard League
(5) Barbarossa's March
(6) The Emperor Sleeping

(Only campaign that is marathon safe in its entirety, besides William Wallace, which I won't even list here.)

Attila the Hun

(1) Scourge of God
(2) The Great Ride
(3) Walls of Constantinople
(4) A Barbarian Betrothal

El Cid

(1) Brother against Brother
(4) Black Guards
(5) King of Valencia (Barely; the scenario is won basically by surviving 20 minutes)

Montezuma

(1) Reign of Blood
(4) La Noche Triste
(6) Broken Spears

Battles of the Conquerors

Agincourt
Tours
Noryang Point
Vinlandsaga

All other scenarios take too long or are too risky for a live run.
If you were to pick a top 5, what would it be? (Just in case that's too many entries for a bidding war)
Two different categories: Pure speed and generally interesting:

Doable in under 10 minutes:

Montezuma 4 (La Noche Triste)
Barbarossa 3 (Pope and Anti-pope)
Joan of Arc 2 (The Maid of Orleans)
Saladin 1 (An Arabian Knight)
Saladin 3 (The Horns of Hattin)
Genghis Khan 2 (A Life of Revenge)
Attila the Hun 2 (The Great Ride)
El Cid 4 (Black Guards)
Agincourt
Tours



Top 5 most interesting to watch (IMO)

Frederick Barbarossa 5 (Barbarossa's March)
Attila the Hun 3 (Walls of Constantinople)
Saladin 3 (Horns of Hattin)
Vinlandsaga
Montezuma 1 (Reign of Blood)
Pudding%
Did a couple Hard Low% runs with saves tonight. PB'd twice, with a 1:18:xx, then a 1:14:56. I'm getting way more comfortable with Tourian and Mecha Ridley, and I've got strats for virtually every room now. I'm feeling very confident in this run now.
Obscure games ftw
Just did 2 no reset runs of Double Spoiler, between the 2 runs I got every scene (all 67) first try on one or both of the runs, including the really tricky strats like Rose Hell.

I need to practice Ghost Town and Oort Cloud more, though.
edit: realized Ghost Town is wildly inconsistent, dropped it in favor of the previously cut for being too slow (though easy) Gold Rush.  Worked out a strat for Oort Cloud that is not only consistent but a second faster than what I'd been doing, and also learned a cycle skip for 5-2 which saves me 5 seconds-it's pretty tough, though, so I'm not sure if I'll be using it since I only just learned how to do it.
just( •_•)>⌐■-■ ..... (⌐■_■)wing it
ok probably last update ill do until I finalize my strats.  got 3  47:0x's offline for mmx3.  after doing the game more and more imma have to take out a few strats i use just to make the run more smooth. 
I did a 24 hour stream earlier and completed 4 or 5 runs. All of them were within a couple minutes of 2 hours and one of them was a WR at 1:50:07
http://www.twitch.tv/mistermonopoli/c/3447885
Is PJ
I improved the Rad Raygun record by ~26 seconds today.



I'd say I'm in good shape for AGDQ, but there's still a really really good chance the game will crash.
Pudding%
3 days later, PB'd again. 1:12:27. Still not deathless. Getting close though.